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I have been tracking the same patterns in our division. The language in the memos has shifted from growth to 'resilience' and 'optimization' almost overnight. When they stop replacing people who leave and start demanding daily status reports on every minor task, it is clear they are preparing for a restructuring. It is an open secret that the headcount targets are being revised downward to hit year-end margin goals. Do not wait for an official announcement to update your resume; the signs are everywhere if you know what to look for.
Honestly, this is just the standard corporate playbook at BNP. Every time the market gets choppy or earnings miss targets, leadership rolls out these 'efficiency' initiatives to satisfy shareholders. I have seen this cycle three times now. The middle management team is clearly being pressured to justify their budgets, which is why your lead is suddenly acting like a micromanager. Just keep your head down, document your contributions, and start networking outside the bank. It is definitely time to look at other options while the job market is still holding steady.