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The silence from management is usually the loudest indicator. If they are dodging direct questions about the Q4 roadmap, they already have a target list finalized for the Capital One transition. Based on similar large-scale bank mergers, they often pivot to a 'enhanced' severance package to prevent lawsuits and ensure quick departures, but don't count on it being generous. You’re doing the right thing by updating your resume now. It is much easier to find a new position when you are still employed than after the official announcement hits.
Don't panic just yet, but definitely keep your options open. The 'clean balance sheet' strategy is standard operating procedure for companies going through an acquisition like this. HR usually keeps the severance terms under tight wraps until the final regulatory approvals are in place, so your manager likely doesn't have the clearance to say anything even if they wanted to. Expect the standard formula but brace for potential clawbacks or retention clauses if they ask you to stay through the transition period. Watch for any sudden mandatory team meetings on a Friday afternoon.