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I’ve been tracking this too. It feels like the internal mobility portal is basically a graveyard for open roles now. I had three interviews lined up over the last quarter, and every single one resulted in a 'role on hold' email within days. Management is definitely prioritizing retention within existing silos because they don't want to deal with the headcount budget shuffle. If you really want to move, don't waste time on the official process—start networking directly with leads in other departments, because the formal path is currently broken by design.
Honestly, it’s not just you. The culture around internal movement has shifted from encouraging growth to 'stay in your lane or get out.' They are clearly tightening the belt across the board, and freezing transfers is the easiest way to prevent team bloat without having to send out another round of company-wide layoff notices. If your manager is giving you the 'focus on current priorities' talk, take it as a sign that they know more than they're letting on. It’s time to start updating your external portfolio just in case.