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Not entirely paranoid. I've definitely noticed a shift in conversations around the office lately. People are being a bit more tight-lipped than usual, and there's a general undercurrent of uncertainty. It's hard to pinpoint exactly why, but it does make sense to keep your options open. Better safe than sorry in this environment.
I hear you. While I haven't seen any direct signs of trouble, the 'quiet exodus' you mentioned is definitely a thing. It's more of a gut feeling, that sense of something brewing beneath the surface. I've been casually browsing job boards myself, just to stay current. It never hurts to be prepared, even if nothing comes of it.