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I’ve been seeing the exact same pattern in my division. It’s classic corporate speak—they mask a hiring freeze with 'optimization' jargon until the very last minute. When they stop replacing people who leave, it’s almost always a tell that they’re preparing the books for a larger reduction. I’d suggest updating your resume now and networking outside the company while you still have the luxury of time. Don't wait for HR to give you the heads-up, because they never will until the meeting invite hits your calendar.
Honestly, try not to panic yet. While it feels ominous, I’ve seen them do this 'optimization' dance before without it resulting in mass layoffs. Sometimes it’s just a push to inflate the year-end numbers for the shareholders. I know the silence is frustrating, but focus on delivering your core projects and keeping your head down for now. If you’re really worried, keep your ears to the ground, but don’t assume the worst until you see actual movement. The internal job market always fluctuates during these cycles.