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I’ve noticed the same thing at my division. Every time they use that 'operational efficiency' buzzword, it usually precedes a round of cuts. Last time this happened in the Southeast region, we saw a significant thinning of the middle management layer by mid-December. Don’t trust the standard 'business as usual' rhetoric; if your manager is dodging budget questions for Q1, they likely know the hammer is coming down. Keep your resume polished and start tracking your recent project wins just in case you need to leverage them elsewhere soon.
Look, don't panic yet. These re-org rumors pop up every single Q4 like clockwork. Corporate loves to throw out vague efficiency talk to keep people on edge and productive before the fiscal year ends. I’ve been through three of these cycles here and usually, it’s just shuffling departments around rather than massive layoffs. Your manager is probably just as in the dark as you are and doesn't want to commit to Q1 funding that might get clawed back during the annual planning process. Just keep your head down and ride it out.