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I’ve been seeing the exact same signs in my department. The 'strategic alignment' messaging is definitely the standard corporate code for incoming headcount reductions. The fact that your manager is dodging 2025 budget questions is a major red flag—they usually know exactly what the plan is but are under strict orders to keep quiet until the official announcement. I’d suggest updating your resume and keeping your LinkedIn active. It’s better to be prepared for the worst than to get caught off guard when the restructuring hits later this year.
Honestly, try not to spiral yet. The frozen headcounts and travel restrictions are likely just end-of-year austerity measures to help hit those Q3 and Q4 margin targets. Every time the company talks about 'strategic alignment,' everyone assumes layoffs are coming, but usually, it’s just a way to shuffle people around or stop backfilling roles that aren't critical. Keep your head down and perform well, but don't panic until you see an actual formal announcement. This company goes through these cycles of paranoia every few years, and usually, it's not as bad as the office chatter makes it seem.